Israel Election 2026: Netanyahu Faces Toughest Challenge as Exit Polls Signal Tight Race

Israel Election 2026: Netanyahu Faces Toughest Challenge as Exit Polls Signal Tight Race

Israel's October 27 election could reshape the country's political future as Benjamin Netanyahu faces a tight contest against Gadi Eisenkot. Exit polls point to a hung parliament, raising questions over coalition negotiations and the next government.

Israel held its first general election on October 27 since the Hamas-led attacks on the country on October 7, 2023, with exit polls indicating a closely contested battle between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his political rivals.

As election day approached, opinion polls suggested that the contest could be one of the closest in recent years. Most election analysts expected neither side to secure a clear victory, raising the prospect of prolonged negotiations to form a government.

Exit polls appeared to confirm those predictions. They indicated that the alliance opposing incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, led by Gadi Eisenkot, was likely to secure the highest number of seats. However, Netanyahu's Likud party was projected to emerge as the largest single party in the Israeli parliament.

Israel's electoral system plays a crucial role in determining the outcome of elections and the formation of governments.

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The Israeli parliament, known as the Knesset, has 120 seats. A political alliance needs at least 61 seats to secure a majority and form a government.

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Israel follows a system of proportional representation, under which parties receive seats according to their share of the vote. As a result, governments in the country have traditionally been formed through coalitions involving several political parties.

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Can Benjamin Netanyahu Form a Government?

Opinion polls released on October 23 indicated that neither the alliance led by Netanyahu nor the coalition headed by his principal rival, former army chief General Gadi Eisenkot, was likely to cross the 61-seat threshold.

When no political alliance secures a majority, the Israeli president, currently Isaac Herzog, consults the leaders of political parties before deciding which leader should be invited to form a government.

The president typically invites the leader of the party that wins the highest number of seats in the Knesset. However, this is not a mandatory requirement.

Following the 2009 election, for instance, then-President Shimon Peres invited Netanyahu to form a government first, even though his Likud party had finished behind the rival Kadima party.

The leader chosen by the president is given a maximum of 42 days to form a government. If that leader fails to do so, another party leader may be given the opportunity.

If no party or alliance secures a majority, a minority government could also come to power. If that option fails as well, fresh elections may be called. Until then, Netanyahu would continue as caretaker prime minister.

Netanyahu's Likud Party and Eisenkot's Yashar Party were projected to emerge as the largest parties in the Israeli parliament. However, both would need support from other parties to form a coalition government.

Netanyahu leads an alliance of right-wing and religious parties. He first came to power in 1996, becoming Israel's first directly elected prime minister following an early election held after the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin.

He has remained in power for most of the past three decades.

Eisenkot, meanwhile, leads a coalition of opposition parties with centre-right and left-wing leanings. Their primary common objective is to remove Netanyahu from power.

The alliance also includes the party led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, known as B'Yachad.

Two Arab party alliances are also contesting the election, as Arabs account for approximately one-fifth of Israel's population.

In theory, these parties could play a decisive role in determining which alliance forms the next government. However, all but one of the major Jewish parties have ruled out the possibility of working with them in government.

When Will Israel Election Results Be Announced?

Preliminary election results are expected to begin coming in from October 28, while the official results are scheduled to be announced on November 4.

Negotiations to form a coalition government could take several weeks or even months.

Following the March 2021 elections, it took until June for a government to be formed, after Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid reached a power-sharing agreement.

Netanyahu was given the first opportunity to form a government at the time but failed to put together a coalition capable of governing.

Israel has repeatedly faced situations in which political parties have been unable to form a government even after elections.

Between 2019 and 2022, the country held five separate elections because political parties could not agree to cooperate with one another.

The latest election, held on October 27, therefore marks another critical moment in Israel's political landscape, with the results expected to determine whether Netanyahu can retain power or whether his opponents can assemble the parliamentary support needed to form a new government.

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